Betting Against the House

By: Jeff Pollock April 13, 2017 A stunning 54% of respondents to a CIBC poll published last week said that they believe Canadian home prices will never fall. These presumable homeowners are falling victim to a classic cognitive shortcoming called the “recency bias.”...

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Timing the Market

By: Jeff Pollock April 6, 2017 Financier J.P. Morgan was once asked by a liftboy to forecast the stock market’s behaviour while he was away overseas. “It will fluctuate,” Morgan replied. Timing the market over the short-term is a favourite past time for speculators....

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Party Crashers

By: Jeff Pollock March 31, 2017 At the end of September, about a month before last fall’s Presidential Election, we wrote that “if Trump’s recent momentum in the polls continues … and Republican candidates running for the Senate benefit too, the same party will occupy...

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When Good Companies Do Bad Things

By: Jeff Pollock March 23, 2017 The liquidity offered in the stock market is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, few can resist the temptation to check the prices of the stocks they own on a daily (or even minute-by-minute) basis. This creates relentless anxiety,...

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Go Tax Somebody Else

By: Jeff Pollock March 16, 2017 Rumours are abound that Canada’s Minister of Finance, Bill Morneau, may potentially increase the capital gains tax rate in next week’s federal budget. Currently 50% of realized capital gains are taxed at your ordinary rate. Starting...

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Beware the Ides of March

By: Jeff Pollock March 9, 2017 It’s now all but certain that Janet Yellen and her Federal Reserve will jolt interest rates up by another 25 basis points next week when it adjourns their monthly meeting on March 15. Just last week, Yellen herself publicly stated that a...

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Driving Under the Influence, Still

By: Jeff Pollock March 2, 2017 Almost a year ago (April 7 to be exact), we wrote a blog arguing that the driving forces behind North American auto sales demand were discounts and incentives. One year later, not much has changed. In fact, the problem has grown worse....

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Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

By: Jeff Pollock February 17, 2017 Following last June’s referendum, the United Kingdom surprisingly voted to separate from the European Union. There was initial speculation that a Brexit may not materialize into reality. Gina Miller, a business owner, challenged...

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Bank on More Upside from Financial Stocks

By: Jeff Pollock February 9, 2017 Subsequent to the US Presidential Election, the market appreciated almost 8%. One of the strongest performing sectors has been the US Financials, up just over 17%. As the sector wrestled to adjust their business model to the new and...

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