Trumping Yellen’s Agenda

By: Jeff Pollock May 17, 2017 Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve have now hiked rates three times since cutting their borrowing rate to near 0% during the financial crisis. The plan to push through three further rate increases in 2017 has, until recently, been...

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Breaking the Chains of Habit

By: Jeff Pollock May 12, 2017 Warren Buffett justified his disinterest in the technology sector during a 1998 interview with Bloomberg by stating, “I don't know what [the technology] world will look like in 10 years, and I don't want to play in a game where the other...

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Sell in May and Go Away?

By: Jeff Pollock May 4, 2017 The old adage to “sell in May and go away” is a trade considered by many investment professionals around this time each year. After reviewing the historical data, however, perhaps it shouldn’t be. Going back to 1980, the S&P/TSX...

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The Run On Home Capital Group

By: Jeff Pollock April 7, 2016  Much has been written, reported, and tweeted about Home Capital Group (“HCG”) this past month. The story culminated on Wednesday when it was announced that HCG would receive access to a $2 billion credit facility, secured against its...

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Betting Against the House

By: Jeff Pollock April 13, 2017 A stunning 54% of respondents to a CIBC poll published last week said that they believe Canadian home prices will never fall. These presumable homeowners are falling victim to a classic cognitive shortcoming called the “recency bias.”...

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Timing the Market

By: Jeff Pollock April 6, 2017 Financier J.P. Morgan was once asked by a liftboy to forecast the stock market’s behaviour while he was away overseas. “It will fluctuate,” Morgan replied. Timing the market over the short-term is a favourite past time for speculators....

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Party Crashers

By: Jeff Pollock March 31, 2017 At the end of September, about a month before last fall’s Presidential Election, we wrote that “if Trump’s recent momentum in the polls continues … and Republican candidates running for the Senate benefit too, the same party will occupy...

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When Good Companies Do Bad Things

By: Jeff Pollock March 23, 2017 The liquidity offered in the stock market is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, few can resist the temptation to check the prices of the stocks they own on a daily (or even minute-by-minute) basis. This creates relentless anxiety,...

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Go Tax Somebody Else

By: Jeff Pollock March 16, 2017 Rumours are abound that Canada’s Minister of Finance, Bill Morneau, may potentially increase the capital gains tax rate in next week’s federal budget. Currently 50% of realized capital gains are taxed at your ordinary rate. Starting...

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Beware the Ides of March

By: Jeff Pollock March 9, 2017 It’s now all but certain that Janet Yellen and her Federal Reserve will jolt interest rates up by another 25 basis points next week when it adjourns their monthly meeting on March 15. Just last week, Yellen herself publicly stated that a...

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